Mentawais vs. Telos vs. Banyaks boat trip itineraries

I'm going on a Sumatra boat trip in late June/early July. This much I know for sure. But I still have some questions

1. Since I don't have enough people to charter a whole boat, will my trip definitely sail?
2. What itinerary will give us the best waves with the lightest crowds this year?

I'm going to do some research to see what else is available for my dates in case my trip falls through. Maybe one of my buddies has to cancel, maybe nobody else will book, who knows. But this year I need a backup plan. Hopefully researching availability will also give me an idea of what crowds might be like in different areas, and I'll add to this post later with my findings.

As for 2) I know the Northern Mentawais have the highest spot density and consistency, but I have heard horror stories of Mentawais crowds with 6 camps in the Playgrounds. I have personally witnessed 8 boats at Thunders during a couple days of small swell & S/SE winds. How many boats will actually be running when I am there?

Since so many boats are now offering the "Telos/Hinakos" option out of Padang, I thought I'd do a little exploration on what is reasonably possible. Logistically, there are only four places to start or end the crossing to or from Padang assuming you actually want to surf on your first and last days. From south to north: South Sipora (HT's/Lance's), North Sipora (Telescopes/Icelands), Playgrounds (Kandui, Rifles, Bank Vaults, Ebay), and South Telos.

Traditionally Mentawai charters have been 10 days/11 nights or 11 days/12 nights. When starting in Padang, in order to spend meaningful time in either the Banyaks or far southern Mentawais you need at least 13 days/14 nights, with additional days beyond that adding additional flexibility. I'm aiming for a 13/14, 14/15, or even a 15/16 trip if I can pull it off, so I should have the flexibility to do a more unusual trip, IF that's the call.


a) Traditional Ments Trip ranging from Playgrounds to Thunders


This area still has the highest concentration of consistent world-class waves in the world, it's only a question of crowds. My backup plan research should give me some info on crowds during a specific period.


b) Southern Ments trip from HT's to the tip of South Pagai


Going south of Thunders is a significant commitment (for a Mentawais trip anyway), but a pretty reliable crowd avoidance strategy. Spots are relatively unknown with a lot of bogus maps and info out there, but the potential is solid.



c) "North-South" trip starting in the northern ments and ending in the Telos


The range from HT's to the northern Telos encompasses a lot of 5-star spots with a big range of consistency & crowding. It allows you to test the waters in the Ments and leave if the crowds start to test you. Downside is the trip from Playgrounds to South Telos is long, you skip Maccas, and your time at HT's will be limited and early in your trip.


d) Telos-Hinakos only


Depending on which boats and camps are booked when, this could be the least crowded itinerary, with generally only a light sprinkling of Padang-based boats. Avoiding the long run up or down the back of Nias means you could spend some time moving between southern Nias, the Hinakos, and western mainland Nias instead of pushing on.

e) Telos-Nias-Hinakos-Banyaks

The Banyaks have some great waves, but the boats based in Simeulue and Sibolga are on it enough to give the Padang-based guides pause before pushing past Nias. Swell direction can also be a factor in lighting up more Banyaks spots.

What would you do?