Indo swell forecast looking solid - Ments or Telos?

My first day surfing off Sumatra on Mikumba is June 28. We are in luck! Surfline's premium long-range forecast is showing a lot of long period juice headed our way. Now we have some more data to help with out decision on going North vs. South.

First, long range weather forecasts of any kind can be pretty iffy. I look at this forecast a couple times a day and it has been changing a lot lately. Even if the swell arrives 3-4 feet smaller than predicted there should still be head high to overhead waves at most spots. If it arrives as predicted then most spots are well overhead to double overhead.

If the swell is small or there have been consistent bad winds (either straight N or straight S) then I'd 100% want to be in the Mentawais. Let's be totally clear - the Mentawais have more spots, more variety of exposure, and more consistent spots than anywhere in the world, including the Telos. If you could catch the Ments with off-season crowds and good swell then there's no place I'd rather be.

But alas...off season crowds happen only in the off season. Except this year is a global recession and luxury products like boat trips and $200/day resorts are seeing lower bookings than normal. This resulted in April/May crowds that were "ten year lows" for the Mentawais. If there was a year to take chances with peak season crowds, maybe this is it.

So then why bother with the Telos? Good swell there makes for uncrowded hollow rights and lefts. There aren't lots of 5 star waves, but there are definitely some. Telo Island Lodge is in the north Telos has documented a bunch of their local spots, more named Telo spots than I have seen anywhere else. Telo Island lodge uses different names than I remember, but as the area is just now becoming a more mainstream, named destination it will take a little time before the Lance Right vs. HT's spot name issues sort themselves out. The new Resort Latitude Zero is being more circumspect about naming names, but has some enticing photos. Surfline had a 2-part feature on the Telos recently promoting a pro trip to Latitude Zero, and they also got a lot of great photos but named no spots.

As you look at the photos on Surfline from the pro trip, keep in mind that those guys were already on set up on Bali, saw a good swell forecast, and chased it. The photos show not everyday Telos not every day, but with good swell. Quality is great, but it needed some swell push to get overhead at the top spots.

Crowd-wise, if you're on a boat the three land-based options in the Telos cannot possibly cover all the spots. Boat punters out of Padang aren't dumb - most boats have a surcharge to go the distance to the Telos and with the Ments less crowded this year why pay up? Boats based in Sibolga wouldn't go as far south as the Telos. It's kind of inconvenient for everyone and therefore consistently uncrowded.