Mentawai crowds at "ten year lows"

"Bay of Plenty" - sure, but how often?

Making the best use of historical swell data really depends on knowing what makes certain spots tick.  For example, it takes a lot less swell energy to make Bawa go double-overhead than it does to make Lagundri Bay go double-overhead.  I will try to make a few spot-specific generalizations, but knowledge like that has to be earned the hard way and even after a few trips and lots of research I still don't have much to share.

For the Bay of Plenty in the Banyaks off northern Sumatra, it's pretty easy.  The area is basically shadowed behind Nias.  Any swell south of 220 degrees has to refract around the top of Nias, and potentially lose a lot of energy along the way, but 220+ swells come straight in and light up multiple quality right and left setups.  How often does meaningful energy come in at 220+?

Mentawai historical swell data by month

As a Surfline premium member, I get access to crazy amounts of data.  Over the last year or so I have been manually collecting data for the Mentawai/Sumatra area day by day from Surfline's LOLA model.

To the best of my knowledge, this data for Sumatra isn't based on anything collected by scientific instruments in Indonesian waters or human observation.  It's just the output from a complex proprietary Surfline algorithm for predicting swell height, period, and direction based on limited, but real wind speed, direction, and sea state data collected by weather stations, buoys, and US government satellites.  As such, it needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

This narrow swell-focused view does not take into account wind or tides, but I feel these are reasonable to ignore.  With the smaller tidal range west of Sumatra most spots work acceptably on most tides and tide flow directions.  With respect to wind, Sumatra is noted for light and variable wind.  Strong, consistent winds from one direction do happen (like the S/SE pattern July-Sept 2006) but such patterns are relatively rare until you go south of the Mentawais on mainland Sumatra. 

So on to the numbers - what I have here is the average "Swell Energy" for each month from July 07-February 09.  I use quotes around swell energy because if Surfline said a given day was 3-4 ft at 15 seconds, I just add the smaller height number to the period to get Swell Energy.  So a pumping, big-as-it-gets swell of 9 ft 17 sec would be a 26 whereas some 3 ft 12 sec junk would be a 15.  This works because wave energy is a function of both swell height squared and swell period squared.  To some degree, the two are fairly interchangeable.  This isn't to say that 3 ft 17 sec will look just like 6 ft 14 seconds at your local break, but that level of complexity is spot-specific and beyond what I can possibly figure out.

July 2007 Average 21.1

August 2007 Average 21.6

September 2007 Average 20.3

October 2007 Average 18.4

November 2007 Average 16.9

December 2007 Average 15.1

January 2008 Average 16.1

February 2008 Average 16.8

March 2008 Average 17.9

April 2008 Average 18.9

May 2008 Average 19.9

June 2008 Average 19.8

July 2008 Average 20.6

August 2008 Average 19.9

September 2008 Average 19.7

October 2008 Average 17.2

November 2008 Average 13.6

December 2008 Average 15.2

January 2008 Average 16.5

February 2008 Average 14.9

I know there are a lot of sites out there that crunch historical data and give it away for free like this one - but there are differences.  Since magicseaweed has to cover all sorts of crappy unreliable spots in Florida, the Caribbean, Brazil, etc, their bar for "ridable" is a lot lower than the average Mentawai boat trip punter.  To say that Macaroni's is "rideable" between 62% and 90% in January might be true in the Florida sense, but if you pulled up there and the swell was 4 ft 11 sec, the guide wouldn't even drop the anchor before pulling a U-turn and heading for Thunder's.

From what I have seen swell energy of 19 or 20 should be enough juice to make swell magnets go overhead+ and get all but the neediest spots into the shoulder-to-head high range.  This is the swell that gives you the session of the trip, everyone's best wave of the trip, all the keeper photos and video clips, and sticks in your mind and makes you determined to come back next year.  In peak season, you can see the islands off Sumatra do that pretty consistently.

Mentawais vs. Telos vs. Banyaks boat trip itineraries

I'm going on a Sumatra boat trip in late June/early July. This much I know for sure. But I still have some questions

1. Since I don't have enough people to charter a whole boat, will my trip definitely sail?
2. What itinerary will give us the best waves with the lightest crowds this year?

I'm going to do some research to see what else is available for my dates in case my trip falls through. Maybe one of my buddies has to cancel, maybe nobody else will book, who knows. But this year I need a backup plan. Hopefully researching availability will also give me an idea of what crowds might be like in different areas, and I'll add to this post later with my findings.

As for 2) I know the Northern Mentawais have the highest spot density and consistency, but I have heard horror stories of Mentawais crowds with 6 camps in the Playgrounds. I have personally witnessed 8 boats at Thunders during a couple days of small swell & S/SE winds. How many boats will actually be running when I am there?

Since so many boats are now offering the "Telos/Hinakos" option out of Padang, I thought I'd do a little exploration on what is reasonably possible. Logistically, there are only four places to start or end the crossing to or from Padang assuming you actually want to surf on your first and last days. From south to north: South Sipora (HT's/Lance's), North Sipora (Telescopes/Icelands), Playgrounds (Kandui, Rifles, Bank Vaults, Ebay), and South Telos.

Traditionally Mentawai charters have been 10 days/11 nights or 11 days/12 nights. When starting in Padang, in order to spend meaningful time in either the Banyaks or far southern Mentawais you need at least 13 days/14 nights, with additional days beyond that adding additional flexibility. I'm aiming for a 13/14, 14/15, or even a 15/16 trip if I can pull it off, so I should have the flexibility to do a more unusual trip, IF that's the call.


a) Traditional Ments Trip ranging from Playgrounds to Thunders


This area still has the highest concentration of consistent world-class waves in the world, it's only a question of crowds. My backup plan research should give me some info on crowds during a specific period.


b) Southern Ments trip from HT's to the tip of South Pagai


Going south of Thunders is a significant commitment (for a Mentawais trip anyway), but a pretty reliable crowd avoidance strategy. Spots are relatively unknown with a lot of bogus maps and info out there, but the potential is solid.



c) "North-South" trip starting in the northern ments and ending in the Telos


The range from HT's to the northern Telos encompasses a lot of 5-star spots with a big range of consistency & crowding. It allows you to test the waters in the Ments and leave if the crowds start to test you. Downside is the trip from Playgrounds to South Telos is long, you skip Maccas, and your time at HT's will be limited and early in your trip.


d) Telos-Hinakos only


Depending on which boats and camps are booked when, this could be the least crowded itinerary, with generally only a light sprinkling of Padang-based boats. Avoiding the long run up or down the back of Nias means you could spend some time moving between southern Nias, the Hinakos, and western mainland Nias instead of pushing on.

e) Telos-Nias-Hinakos-Banyaks

The Banyaks have some great waves, but the boats based in Simeulue and Sibolga are on it enough to give the Padang-based guides pause before pushing past Nias. Swell direction can also be a factor in lighting up more Banyaks spots.

What would you do?

Mentawai bookings hit hard by global recession

With official recession status established in the US and looming in Australia, anecdotal evidence indicates the Sumatran surf industry has been hit hard by slow bookings and last-minute cancellations in Q1 2009.  Q1 is normally be a peak time for bookings for travel during the May-September high season.

The industry consists of 40+ charter boats and over a dozen land-based camps and resorts scattered from North Pagai Island in the Mentawai chain to Simeulue and the Banyak islands north of Nias.  With 6-12 surfers per trip spending between USD2500 and USD5000 each, one week in peak season could see over USD100,000 in tourism dollars flowing through companies based in Padang, the capital of Western Sumatra province.  Obviously not all this money is spent locally.  Commissions on these trips paid to booking agents range from 10-30%.  Boat owners and guides are generally not in the business for the money, most being surfers themselves they are willing to cut their own profits to low levels to cover their capital costs, stay in the water, and enjoy personal relationships with long-time return guests.   Still, around half the revenue coming in is likely spent locally on fuel, food, salaries, tips, maintenance, lodging, and government taxes.

The recent news is not all bad.  For the 2007 and 2008 seasons fuel costs soared, causing charter price increases and fuel surcharges, especially for more fuel-intensive trips from Padang heading north to Nias and beyond.  However recently fuel costs have decreased with the drop in oil prices, and those fuel surcharges are generally a thing of the past.  

Another side effect of reduced fuel prices is that it gives charter operators with half-filled trips some latitude to discount prices or leave port half-empty.  With fuel prices sky-high during 2008, many boats would not leave port less than 80%+ of available spots filled.  In a good economy, this was a way to keep per-person prices down while leaving some margin.  But with today's fuel prices and slow bookings, many operators are choosing to guarantee sailings of half- or mostly-empty charters to incent new bookings and bring in needed revenue to offset the fixed costs of boat ownership and off-season maintenance.

Finally, boat captains and booking agents may be more willing to accomodate individuals rather than holding out for a low-hassle, full-boat booking that puts the responsibility to fill the boat on whoever puts up the money for the booking.

As evidence, I got a promo email from wavehunters.com on February 20 with a lot of half-empty, discouted peak-season trips.  This sample is only 4 boats of 40, but since wavehunters makes frequent updates regarding availability and discounts I looked at their site to sort of "update" their promotion and see how things are going right now for peak season trips in May-July.

Apr 28 - May 09: (Nusantara) 4 spots *$2800pp (Guaranteed to sail) 
May 02 - May 14: (Addiction) 10 spots * Highly discounted 
May 12 - May 23: (Nusantara) 7 spots *$2800pp (2 more minimum to sail) 
May 22 - Jun 02: (Bintang) 12 spots *$2100pp 11 night trip / $2290pp 12 night trip (6 minimum to sail) 
Jun 05 - Jun 16: (Bintang) 5 spots *$2100pp 11 night trip / $2290pp 12 night trip (Guranteed to sail) 
Jun 09 - Jun 20: (Nusantara) 3 spots *$2800pp (Guaranteed to sail) 
Jun 18 - Jun 30: (Navistar) 7 spots *$2580pp individual / $2313pp 8 person full boat booking (4 minimum to sail) 
Jun 19 - Jun 30: (Bintang) 12 spots *$2100pp 11 night trip / $2290pp 12 night trip (6 minimum to sail) 
Jun 23 - Jul 04: (Nusantara) 6 spots *$2800pp (Guaranteed to sail)

Jun 27 - Jul 09 (Addiction) 6 spots * Discounted

Jul 21 - Aug 01: (Nusantara) 10 spots *$2800pp

Jul 17 - Jul 28: (Bintang) 12 spots *$2100pp 11 night trip / $2290pp 12 night trip (6 minimum to sail)

It looks like Navistar will guarantee sailing at half full and Nusantara will sail at 40% full.  Addiction was not really discouting in February but they are now, and sail with 6 of 10 bunks filled.  Two Navistar trips promoted in the earlier email have now booked out.  Going beyond July, Bintang only has 4 of 11 peak season May-September trips booked, so they are clearly hurting.  Bintang was saying minimun 6 surfers to sail in February but now they are saying minimum of 4, this on a large boat that holds 12 surfers.

Elsewhere, the ultra-luxe Midas has reduced peak season rates by 20% to get new bookings, and 6 of their 11 sailings for the May-Sept period are unbooked. 

Indies Trader 4 "Off the Market", "quite busy"

As I initially heard from Evan at SurfThereNow in this post and from reader Rick Cameron last fall that Indies Trader 4 was for sale, no doubt a sign of hard economic times and a plunging stock price for Quiksilver. Nicknamed "The Death Star" by envious boat captains and their guests, Indies 4 has been the most extravagant way to cruise for surf in Indonesia and the Marshall islands, with a high top speed, luxurious ensuite cabins, helipad, and rates rumored to be between $1200-2000/person/day. However, the "recession" circumstances reported on earlier may have changed for the better.

In an exchange with Indies Trader representative Anthony Marcotti, I asked about the status and availability of Indies Trader 4. He noted that "[Indies Trader 4 is] off the market and quite busy… it has 5 charters this summer in the Mentawais."

Perhaps the owners could not get the price they wanted in the off season and decided to bite the bullet and run another season in the perfect waves off Sumatra.

DVD Review: Fitty Fitty

New Telo Islands Surf Camp - "Resort Latitude Zero"

Looks like our former Panaitan Island guide, Todd Roesler is teaming up with one of the most respected Mentawai / Sumatra skippers, Matt Cruden for a new surf camp/resort in the Telo Islands. Matt was recently featured guiding WCT pros on his boat Mangalui Ndulu in the DVD's "Fitty Fitty" and "Somewhere".  This resort also has the advantage of being serviced by Todd's boat, Nomad.  The resort's website is here.

The site doesn't mention anything about the camp's location within the Batu / Telo island group, though likely it is in the northern Telos near the major village/port.

There is some land-based competition already in the Telos: A brazilian-operated camp in the southern Telos, and the Telo Island Lodge in the northern Telos.  The Telo Island Lodge does as good a job of documenting the northern Telos spots as anyone

http://www.teloislandlodge.com/surf.asp

Having spent a couple days in that area when conditions were less than epic, it's unclear to me how many of the spots they name actually work consistently versus those that are fickle about wind, swell, tide, etc. 

In my experience the Telos deserve their reputation for low crowds and good surf. The 5-star spots may not be happening every day, but the most consistent spots can still be a lot of fun. In practice the Telos feature clusters of surf spots that tend to spread out the crowds in a given area and offer variety between heavy hollow waves and more rippable performance waves.