Indo swell forecast looking solid - Ments or Telos?

My first day surfing off Sumatra on Mikumba is June 28. We are in luck! Surfline's premium long-range forecast is showing a lot of long period juice headed our way. Now we have some more data to help with out decision on going North vs. South.

First, long range weather forecasts of any kind can be pretty iffy. I look at this forecast a couple times a day and it has been changing a lot lately. Even if the swell arrives 3-4 feet smaller than predicted there should still be head high to overhead waves at most spots. If it arrives as predicted then most spots are well overhead to double overhead.

If the swell is small or there have been consistent bad winds (either straight N or straight S) then I'd 100% want to be in the Mentawais. Let's be totally clear - the Mentawais have more spots, more variety of exposure, and more consistent spots than anywhere in the world, including the Telos. If you could catch the Ments with off-season crowds and good swell then there's no place I'd rather be.

But alas...off season crowds happen only in the off season. Except this year is a global recession and luxury products like boat trips and $200/day resorts are seeing lower bookings than normal. This resulted in April/May crowds that were "ten year lows" for the Mentawais. If there was a year to take chances with peak season crowds, maybe this is it.

So then why bother with the Telos? Good swell there makes for uncrowded hollow rights and lefts. There aren't lots of 5 star waves, but there are definitely some. Telo Island Lodge is in the north Telos has documented a bunch of their local spots, more named Telo spots than I have seen anywhere else. Telo Island lodge uses different names than I remember, but as the area is just now becoming a more mainstream, named destination it will take a little time before the Lance Right vs. HT's spot name issues sort themselves out. The new Resort Latitude Zero is being more circumspect about naming names, but has some enticing photos. Surfline had a 2-part feature on the Telos recently promoting a pro trip to Latitude Zero, and they also got a lot of great photos but named no spots.

As you look at the photos on Surfline from the pro trip, keep in mind that those guys were already on set up on Bali, saw a good swell forecast, and chased it. The photos show not everyday Telos not every day, but with good swell. Quality is great, but it needed some swell push to get overhead at the top spots.

Crowd-wise, if you're on a boat the three land-based options in the Telos cannot possibly cover all the spots. Boat punters out of Padang aren't dumb - most boats have a surcharge to go the distance to the Telos and with the Ments less crowded this year why pay up? Boats based in Sibolga wouldn't go as far south as the Telos. It's kind of inconvenient for everyone and therefore consistently uncrowded.

Sailing Sumatra on "Mikumba" June 27

There were a lot of last minute deals out there this year, even for some peak season dates.  Back in October I had booked Mikumba with Sumatran Surfariis.  I knew the boat was solid, and the guide would be on it.  

When the economy hit the skids a bunch of the people I thought would come had to bail.   I was facing a nightmare - I had committed to a trip that might not go because it didn't have enough people.  What happens in this scenario?  You get your money back, but only a week in advance, which is really too late to do anything except go to Padang and try to get on with some boat, any boat.

The guys going with me were depending on me to find us the best trip, and I shopped all the last minute specials and emailed every boat I could find to see if they were available during my timeframe.  If a boat is available, you have to ask yourself why - is the boat not quite what it looks like on the internet?  Is the guide a drunk who likes to sleep late?  How bad could the food be?  For the posh looking boats you have to wonder if the guide really knows what's going on.

It came down to these factors:  Most boats only had one tender boat, and Mikumba has two - this is really key for shooting video or being able to ferry guys between two nearby spots without abandoning anyone.  There were a couple of nicer boats available with experienced captains and I seriously considered going with San Souci 2, but $50 more per night for a 14 day/15 night meant the trip cost a LOT more money.  I wasn't sure it would be worth it.  

Bottom line was through friends of friends of friends and a couple of random guys we got enough people to secure a guaranteed departure.  We were totally psyched to get the boat we wanted, the crew we wanted, the dates we wanted, and the flexibility to head to the Telos & Nias with no BS surcharges.  There weren't any discounts, but in the end we still got a great value - 14 surf days for $3150, a spacious boat with a 20 foot beam, two tender boats, the freedom to go to the Telos/Nias/beyond, the Mentawais, or both, and a proven guide & crew.